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2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust
UPDATE: This article has been updated as of October 17, 2016. The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional […]
Tesla’s Battery Technology Powers its Moat – “Faster Than Falling.”
Tesla’s improvements in its battery technology demonstrate the durability of its competitive lead even amidst new electric vehicle announcements from major manufacturers. The goal of ARK’s thematic research and investing is to assess the true signifiers of future value—often overlooked, ignored or misinterpreted—as companies seed disruptive innovation into the marketplace. On this basis, ARK believes […]
Tesla’s Residential Energy Storage: Uneconomic and Premature
Mentioned Companies: ENOCIn April, Tesla announced its Powerwall, an energy-system for homes and offices. Barring a change in business model, however, residential energy storage is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to Tesla’s revenue. Theoretically, if deployed at scale, Tesla’s Powerwall could save the US economy $26 billion annually. Charging at night and distributing power during the day, the […]
Will the Drop in Gasoline Prices Lower the Demand for Electric Vehicles?
Oil prices have declined roughly 50% in the past eight months, calling into question the future demand for electric vehicles (EVs). In fact, SUV and truck sales have increased to 53% of total US vehicle sales during the past six months (as shown below), hitting their highest share in a decade. Longer term, however, as […]
UPDATE: Mirai vs. Tesla: Toyota’s Challenge with Fuel Cells
UPDATE November 18, 2014: This post has been updated by ARK Thematic Analyst David Conway from its original form published on September 2, 2014 by ARK Thematic Analyst Intern Andrew Margrave. When the new Toyota Mirai goes on sale in 2015, those who have access to a hydrogen fueling station will be able to purchase […]
Tesla Battery System Costs Will Drop 40% by 2020
Tesla claims that the economies of scale associated with its Gigafactory will drive the cost of lithium-ion tesla battery pack systems down more than 30% by 2017. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the decline extends well beyond the battery itself: the breakthroughs will be in the system costs of the battery pack. Battery prices have been […]
Electric Vehicle Sales Better Than the Toyota Prius
With the exception of Tesla , have electric vehicle sales disappointed as is commonly perceived? The answer is no. Compared to one of the most successful vehicle models of all time, the Toyota Prius, three electric vehicle models are ahead of trend. Though now commonplace, when the Prius first launched in 1997, it sold just […]
EV Market: Tesla Has Lots of Room to Run
Mentioned Companies: TSLAToday Tesla’s electric vehicles (EV) barely register as a percent of the luxury car market, let alone the overall car market. Because growth in the EV market has barely begun, Tesla has lots of room to run, especially if it increases market share. We predict that the EV market will grow rapidly as technological advances […]
Electric Bus Sales Could Soar
While electric cars seem to be generating quite a bit of excitement these days, investors may be surprised to learn that the transition to electric buses is happening even faster. Estimates call for plug-in hybrid and electric (H&E) bus sales to be more than 42,000 by 2020, achieving 15.4% market penetration, much higher than the […]
Range anxiety: Is It Too Soon to Buy a Tesla?
Range anxiety —the concern that an electric vehicle (EV) will become stranded because it has run out of electricity—is becoming a non-issue. With today’s infrastructure, the map below should instill “range confidence” in any consumer considering an electric vehicle (EV). The main issue with today’s charging infrastructure is not the number of chargers. The problem […]
Are Solar Roadways the Future? Only At a Very Steep Price
People get excited by solar energy. The Solar Roadways Project, funded on crowdsouring site Indiegogo, claims all the roads in the US could be turned into power generating infrastructure, and has created a working prototype. The estimated 13 trillion kWh of power 1 generated from these panels could improve road safety, illuminate roads at night […]
