Bank Revenue from Credit Cards Could Be Cut in Half in The Next 10 Years

ARK believes the lending industry is undergoing a profound shift. Companies that have digital access to consumers as well as to proprietary data sources, and extend credit without leveraging their own balance sheets, are likely to enjoy significant competitive advantages over traditional lenders. Companies like LendingClub and Square are leading the shift to a digitized lending experience, making loans more accessible, transparent, and in most cases cheaper than traditional sources of financing. While the unsecured personal loan market already has gone through this shift, the credit card industry has just started.

Marketplace lenders such as LendingClub, Sofi, Prosper and LightStream match consumers with investors who purchase and ultimately fund loans. These lenders provide increased liquidity and more competitive rates to the unsecured personal loan market. According to Transunion and shown below, fintech companies represented 38% of the $138 billion unsecured personal loan market in 2018, up from 5% in 2013. At the same time, the banks’ share dropped from 71% in 2013 to 49% in 2018, while the total unsecured personal loan market nearly tripled from ~$50 billion to ~$138 billion.

ARK Invest Credit Card Loans New

The credit card industry seems to be at the threshold of a similar shift. Credit cards originally were designed to allow holders to pay for items without cash or checks. Unfortunately, they also often tripped card holders accidentally and/or easily into debt. ARK estimates that card holders paid $118 billion in interest on balances of ~$863 billion1 in 2018, with 91% of the revenue accruing to the 10 publicly traded companies shown in the chart below.

ARK Invest Credit Card Interest Fees New

These companies are taxing their borrowers like never before: interest rates have increased at a record pace during the past 10 years and interest payments are at all-time highs. Relative to long term Treasury rates, the average credit card rate has increased roughly 700 basis points since 2008, pushing the premium between credit card interest rates and Treasury rates from roughly 800 basis points to 1,500, as shown in the chart below. At the same time, interest rates in absolute terms have dropped to record lows.

ARK Invest Credit Card Spread New

Banks seemingly have compensated for the high and rising signup bonuses necessary to entice consumers with higher interest charges. During the rollout of Chase Sapphire Reserve in August 2016, JP Morgan offered signup bonuses of $1,500 for card holders who spent $3,000 during their first three months with the card. Sapphire Reserve became the most successful credit card launch ever: in the first two months, it attracted 470-706,000 users, and in so doing created a liability somewhere between $35 million and $53 million.

While banks are charging record high interest rate spreads to offset burgeoning customer acquisition costs, fintech companies do not need perks or inducements to attract new users. Earlier this year, for example, Apple launched its credit card without any inducements and attracted nearly triple the number of card holders in its first two months. The buzz that it created, as shown in this Google Trends chart, also generated three times the interest compared to the Sapphire card.

In our view, the Apple card was just the beginning of the deluge of credit cards and credit card alternatives that fintech companies will offer during the next few years. Fintech companies enjoy low customer acquisition costs and data advantages, enabling them to offer better rates than their banking peers. They also provide transparency, helping them earn the trust and loyalty of their users.

A number of fintech companies including LendingClub and Square have applied for banking charters which should reduce their cost of capital as they disintermediate middlemen and offer products directly to users. Given their structural advantages relative to banks, fintech companies could usurp half of the consumer debt now issued by banks, cutting their credit card interest fees from ~$118 billion in 2018 to ~$64 billion in 2028. Adding insult to injury, bank credit card interest rates could normalize from a 1500 basis point spread over Treasuries, perhaps cutting interest fees even further.

ARK Invest Credit Card Debt New

  1. In a recent paper by Daniel Grodzicki, Sergei Koulayev, Sustained Credit Card Borrowing, the authors estimate “approximately 82 percent of outstanding credit card balances are debt, or that they are revolved for a month or more”.

The information provided is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. It is intended only to provide observations and views of the author(s) at the time of writing, both of which are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic, and industry conditions. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, click here. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. For full disclosures, click here.