• auto-loans-banner

    A Crisis Brewing for Auto Loans?

    by | Industrial

    An unexpectedly rapid rise of both ride-sharing and shared autonomous vehicles seems likely to threaten all three of the factors that historically have supported a predictable car loan market. Since 2010, auto loans have increased more than 70% or $0.5 trillion as shown below. In our view, disruptive innovation is primed to hit the auto […]

  • traffic will increase, self-driving cars, mobility as a service, autonomous taxis, ark research, white apper

    Self-Driving Cars: Why Traffic Could Increase to 3X Today’s Level

    by | Industrial

    ARK expects that before 2020 fully autonomous vehicles will become commercially available, enabling the rise and rapid growth of autonomous taxi networks. These networks should decrease the cost and inconvenience of point-to-point mobility dramatically, spurring a transformative boost in economic productivity. As a result, we believe traffic will increase almost three-fold by 2030. Autonomous taxi platforms will allow […]

  • EV sales, electric vehicle sales, ark research

    Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts Are Taking Off

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    Two respected energy forecasting agencies revised their Electric Vehicle (EV) expectations up by an order of magnitude and still, according to ARK’s research, they are missing the mark by a long shot. Despite a strong year for traditional SUV and truck sales, both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased their annual EV sales […]

  • ev batteries value, tesla, ark invest, bmw, research, innovation research

    Residual Value: Electric Batteries vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TSLA

    One of the chief concerns about Electric Vehicles (EVs) – battery degradation – seems to be misplaced: ARK’s research suggests that EV batteries will retain substantial value after reaching the end of their in-vehicle lives. Utilities are in constant demand for energy storage products. In fact, if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, […]

  • self-driving car banner image

    Self-Driving Cars: 7 Takeaways For Innovation Investors

    by | Industrial

    In a recent research report (available for download here) ARK illustrates that before 2020 fully autonomous vehicles could become commercially available, enabling the rise and rapid growth of autonomous taxi networks. These networks should decrease the cost and inconvenience of point-to-point mobility dramatically, spurring a transformative boost in economic productivity. As a result, the traditional […]

  • Autonomous Taxi Market

    The Autonomous Taxi Market: Worth 3X The Value of All Auto Manufacturers in 5 Years?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, GOOG, TM, TSLA, VW

    Autonomous taxis will create a tremendous amount of value for consumers and expand the mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market dramatically, according to ARK. Today’s automakers and MaaS players, like Uber, Lyft, and Didi, will need to offer autonomous taxi services to stay competitive. ARK estimates that the companies with successful autonomous strategies stand to profit from a […]

  • Residential Solar, solar Economics, Residential Solar panels, ark research, innovation research, ark invest

    Free Residential Solar Panels? Not Worth The Money.

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: SCTY

    On some level, the argument for the adoption of solar has been simple: at some future date, declines in the cost of solar power will generate cheaper electrons than those from traditional power plants. For decades, this forecast of “grid parity”[1] has supported the case for subsidizing a technology that has been around for decades […]

  • disruptive innovation research, oil peak, peak oil research, electric vehicle, ark invest, innovation research

    Will Global Oil Demand Peak Before 2020?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, BP, NSANY, TSLA

    If current trends in the advancement of electric vehicle (EV) drivetrains and autonomous technology continue, oil demand could peak before the end of the decade. ARK’s research indicates that battery system costs will drop significantly, driving EV demand to levels that far exceed policymakers’ expectations. In addition, Uber-like autonomous taxi services will lower the price of […]

  • autonomous

    Autonomous Taxis Will Overhaul the Global Auto Industry

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, GM, GOOG, NFLX, TSLA

    ARK believes that shared car services like Uber and Lyft already are impacting auto sales, and that autonomous cars will push this trend into overdrive. In developed markets, our research shows that auto sales will collapse over the next decade, eventually reaching equilibrium at roughly half of today’s levels. By contrast, in the developing world, […]

  • autonomous cars

    Autonomous Cars Could Add $7 Trillion to the US Economy

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GOOG, NFLX, TSLA

    Note: ARK has updated this blog from its original publication on 10/27/16 to include a revised forecast for economic impact. Given the macroeconomic importance of auto production in the US, losing auto sales would seem to be terrible economic news. Not so. Yes, in the year that the consumer decides not to purchase a personal vehicle, the […]

  • Electric Vehicles, Tesla, ARK Research, Parity Point

    2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust

    by | Industrial

    UPDATE: This article has been updated as of October 17, 2016. The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional […]

  • Tesla Model 3

    Could the Tesla Model 3 Become the Cheapest Car on the Road?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    ARK believes the advent of autonomous electric vehicles will change the economics of car ownership as we know it. For instance, if the Tesla Model 3 debuts with fully autonomous capability, it will effectively become the most affordable car on the road. The last section of Elon Musk’s Second Master Plan reads, “You will also […]

  • Tesla production efficiency, tesla production, tesla step function, tesla innovation, ark research

    Tesla’s Production Efficiency: The Next Moving Assembly Line

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TM, TSLA

    Henry Ford revolutionized the transportation industry when he introduced the moving assembly line into his factories. It wasn’t the introduction of a new car, but the increase in production efficiency that changed the industry dynamics. It seems unimaginable that vehicle production efficiency has barely improved in the last 100 years. Because of the stasis in […]

  • Shared Autonomous Vehicles Taxis

    Shared Autonomous Vehicles Will Make Ride Services 30 Times More Attractive

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GOOG

    Uber rang the bell for a radical shift in the transportation industry, adding lower prices to the convenience of the taxi model. During the next ten years, we think shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) will disrupt the transportation industry even more radically. As shown in ARK’s recent research, Google could introduce a shared autonomous car system […]

  • SQM Lithium Mine

    The Abundance of Lithium

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: ALB, BP, FMC, ORE, SQM

    Despite speculation to the contrary, lithium resource constraints are unlikely to short circuit accelerating electric vehicle (EV) sales. ARK believes global lithium reserves[1] will continue to grow even as lithium production rises to meet EV demand. Lithium mining companies with low-cost resources stand to benefit as new higher cost supply comes on line. During the […]

  • reusable rockets, spacex, space exploration, ark research, invest in innovation,

    Reusable Rockets: At the First Stage

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: OA

    Elon Musk has made headlines saying, “If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred.”[1] While that statement regarding reusable rockets may be true, in our opinion, the technological pathway that SpaceX has […]

  • 3d printing index, the total 3d printing index, invest in 3d printing

    Why ARK Created A 3D Printing Index

    by | Industrial

    We created the Total 3D Printing Index to track the performance of the 3D printing market as a whole. Watch our 3mins explanation video to better understand the 3D printing opportunity:   3D Printing, or more broadly, additive manufacturing, is the process of building objects layer-by-layer instead of using a mold or removing material from a larger block. This allows […]

  • tesla, tesla battery technology, battery system, battery research, battery technology comparison, battery system review, tesla, ark research, innovation research, invest in innovation

    Lithium-ion Battery Showdown; Is Tesla About To Be Overpowered?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, GM, TSLA

    Will Tesla’s devotion to last decade’s battery system technology undermine its competitive advantage over the latter half of this decade? At first glance: Yes! On further reflection: No! While a simple analysis of the relative price declines of the two major battery form-factors—cylindrical and pouch—would suggest that the likes of General Motors and BMW will produce electric […]

  • automotive consolidation, consolidation automotive industry, evs, ark research, electric vehicles, innovation research, industrial innovation

    The Automotive Industry Is On The Threshold of Massive Consolidation

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, FCAU, TSLA

    In 1913 Henry Ford installed the first moving assembly line for the Model T. Moving at six feet per minute, it reduced the time to build a car from more than 12 hours to one and a half. While impressive, the increased rate of production was not the most important impact. We think the moving […]

  • autonomous taxis, innovation research, invest in autonomous cars, autonomous taxis research

    Autonomous Taxis Could Be Cheaper Than Walking

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: CAR, GM, GOOG, NFLX, TSLA

    Shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) will change the way we commute completely. ARK believes SAVs will not only be transformative from a public health perspective, but that they will deliver more value to consumers than any other form of transportation as measured by cost and convenience. ARK’s research shows that even walking–assuming a $3.99 Big Mac’s worth […]