Research by Sam Korus, ARK Analyst
-
Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts Are Taking Off
Mentioned Companies: TSLATwo respected energy forecasting agencies revised their Electric Vehicle (EV) expectations up by an order of magnitude and still, according to ARK’s research, they are missing the mark by a long shot. Despite a strong year for traditional SUV and truck sales, both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased their annual EV sales […]
Residual Value: Electric Batteries vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
One of the chief concerns about Electric Vehicles (EVs) – battery degradation – seems to be misplaced: ARK’s research suggests that EV batteries will retain substantial value after reaching the end of their in-vehicle lives. Utilities are in constant demand for energy storage products. In fact, if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, […]
Free Residential Solar Panels? Not Worth The Money.
Mentioned Companies: SCTYOn some level, the argument for the adoption of solar has been simple: at some future date, declines in the cost of solar power will generate cheaper electrons than those from traditional power plants. For decades, this forecast of “grid parity”[1] has supported the case for subsidizing a technology that has been around for decades […]
Will Global Oil Demand Peak Before 2020?
If current trends in the advancement of electric vehicle (EV) drivetrains and autonomous technology continue, oil demand could peak before the end of the decade. ARK’s research indicates that battery system costs will drop significantly, driving EV demand to levels that far exceed policymakers’ expectations. In addition, Uber-like autonomous taxi services will lower the price of […]
2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust
UPDATE: This article has been updated as of October 17, 2016. The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional […]
Could the Tesla Model 3 Become the Cheapest Car on the Road?
Mentioned Companies: TSLAARK believes the advent of autonomous electric vehicles will change the economics of car ownership as we know it. For instance, if the Tesla Model 3 debuts with fully autonomous capability, it will effectively become the most affordable car on the road. The last section of Elon Musk’s Second Master Plan reads, “You will also […]
Tesla’s Production Efficiency: The Next Moving Assembly Line
Henry Ford revolutionized the transportation industry when he introduced the moving assembly line into his factories. It wasn’t the introduction of a new car, but the increase in production efficiency that changed the industry dynamics. It seems unimaginable that vehicle production efficiency has barely improved in the last 100 years. Because of the stasis in […]
The Abundance of Lithium
Despite speculation to the contrary, lithium resource constraints are unlikely to short circuit accelerating electric vehicle (EV) sales. ARK believes global lithium reserves[1] will continue to grow even as lithium production rises to meet EV demand. Lithium mining companies with low-cost resources stand to benefit as new higher cost supply comes on line. During the […]
Reusable Rockets: At the First Stage
Mentioned Companies: OAElon Musk has made headlines saying, “If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred.”[1] While that statement regarding reusable rockets may be true, in our opinion, the technological pathway that SpaceX has […]
Lithium-ion Battery Showdown; Is Tesla About To Be Overpowered?
Will Tesla’s devotion to last decade’s battery system technology undermine its competitive advantage over the latter half of this decade? At first glance: Yes! On further reflection: No! While a simple analysis of the relative price declines of the two major battery form-factors—cylindrical and pouch—would suggest that the likes of General Motors and BMW will produce electric […]
The Automotive Industry Is On The Threshold of Massive Consolidation
In 1913 Henry Ford installed the first moving assembly line for the Model T. Moving at six feet per minute, it reduced the time to build a car from more than 12 hours to one and a half. While impressive, the increased rate of production was not the most important impact. We think the moving […]
Rockets on the Rise: New Space Market Brings Explosive Opportunities
Update: ARK published this article about new space market back in October 2014 after the Antares rocket explosion. In the last three months of 2015 several exciting events in the space industry have increased ARK’s conviction in the commercialization of space. First, Congress passed the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, which protects private spaceflight from regulatory […]
Update: Tesla Could Sell a Million Vehicles Per Year by 2020
Elon Musk’s depiction of Tesla’s competitive positioning in the marketplace, highlighted in the company’s Q4 2015 earnings release, is very similar to an analysis that ARK Invest did 12 months ago to project likely demand for Tesla vehicles in 2020. In this piece we updated that analysis and its accompanying blog post to reflect 2015 […]
Retail is Ready for Robots
The Retail Robot is ready to transform shopping. Robotics have shown their worth in the manufacturing industry, increasing product quality while reducing factory footprint, production time, and costs. Now they are ready to bring the advantages of automation to retail. For the past four years gross margins have been falling for major retailers, but Amazon is […]
The Steep Cost of Labor Market Friction: $630 Billion
Friction in the labor market costs the U.S economy more than $630B per annum as shown in the chart below. Given ARK’s expectations for an acceleration in job turnover thanks to automation, this number should be expected to grow. Bad news? Not for everyone: these frictions present tremendous opportunity for companies that help firms reduce […]
Tesla’s Battery Technology Powers its Moat – “Faster Than Falling.”
Tesla’s improvements in its battery technology demonstrate the durability of its competitive lead even amidst new electric vehicle announcements from major manufacturers. The goal of ARK’s thematic research and investing is to assess the true signifiers of future value—often overlooked, ignored or misinterpreted—as companies seed disruptive innovation into the marketplace. On this basis, ARK believes […]