Research by Sam Korus, ARK Analyst

  • Cobalt Banner

    Cobalt Won’t Slow Down EV Adoption

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GM, TSLA

    In the past two years cobalt prices have more than tripled from roughly $25,000 per metric ton to more than $79,0001 in response to supply constraints anticipated as electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain traction. In 2017, the Congo accounted for 58% of global cobalt production, explaining the fear that geopolitical instability will cause shortages. […]

  • ev-forecast-banner

    Auto Capital Spending Suggests That EV Forecasts Are Much Too Low

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, TSLA

    ARK’s research shows that for the past three years, electric vehicle (EV) forecasts have increased significantly, with a consensus forming recently around four million units for 2022. According to ARK’s research, global EV sales will be more than four times higher than expected, or roughly 17 million units. When ARK first forecast 17 million units […]

  • delivery-drones banner

    Delivery Drones Could Serve a Large Swath of the US Population

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AMZN

    Delivery drones are ready to launch, once regulators give them the greenlight. So how many people will these drones be able to serve in the US? Our research suggests that, if the FAA approved them today, Amazon’s drones could transport packages to more than 50 million people in roughly 30 minutes. The battery improvements we […]

  • electric-passenger-drones-banner

    Air Taxis Are On The Way

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BA, EADSY, TSLA

    “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters,” said Peter Thiel in 2013.1 Five years later, we have twice as many characters per tweet, but no flying cars. In our view, a vehicle for both the road and the air will never see the light of day. In fewer than five years, however, personal […]

  • EV Semi Trucks Banner

    The Case for an EV Semi Truck

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    While automakers are waking up to the realization that electric drivetrains are the future of passenger vehicles, many manufacturers remain skeptical that heavy-duty hauling vehicles will succumb to electrification. They continue to assert that batteries are too expensive, too slow to charge, and too heavy to be incorporated into long-haul fleets. Not surprisingly, they scoffed […]

  • electric vehicle future, electric vehicle white paper, ev research, electric vehicle research, sam korus, ark white paper, innovation white paper, electric cars white paper

    The Future of Autos and Trucks Is Electric

    by | Industrial White Paper

    This is an executive summary of ARK Invest’s electric vehicles white paper: The Future of Autos and Trucks Is Electric ARK Expects Global EV Sales To Exceed Current Forecasts, Substantially ARK expects global sales of Electric Vehicles (EVs) to reach 17 million units by 2022, while agencies like the EIA are forecasting only two to four […]

  • Autonomous Electric Trucks , Autonomous Trucks, Autonomous EV Trucks

    Why Autonomous Electric Trucks Are The Future Of Shipping

    by | Industrial

    US truck shipments compromise a $180 billion industry and cost roughly 12 cents per ton-mile today. As automakers are waking up to the realization that electric, autonomous drivetrains are the future of passenger vehicles, ARK’s research shows that commercial trucks will follow in line. Converting diesel trucks into electric vehicles will reduce operating costs, thanks to […]

  • Industrial Robot Costs

    Industrial Robot Cost Decline

    by | Industrial

    According to ARK’s research, industrial robot1 costs will drop by roughly 65%, to levels much lower than most analysts now anticipate, by 2025. Combined with advances in machine learning and computer vision, this drop in costs should cause an inflection point in the demand for robots as they infiltrate new industries with more provocative use […]

  • Collaborative Robots

    The Robots Are Coming… To Help You

    by | Industrial

    Based on our analysis, the robotics industry will be much larger than most experts anticipate, but it will not drive the unemployment rate up. Collaborative robots have become a disruptive force in the traditional industrial robots industry, and will turbocharge the demand for robots to levels far beyond current expectations. Historically, and to the surprise […]

  • auto-loans-banner

    A Crisis Brewing for Auto Loans?

    by | Industrial

    An unexpectedly rapid rise of both ride-sharing and autonomous taxis seems likely to threaten all three of the factors that historically have supported a predictable car loan market. Since 2010, auto loans have increased more than 70% or $0.5 trillion as shown below. In our view, disruptive innovation is primed to hit the auto loans […]

  • EV sales, electric vehicle sales, ark research

    Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts Are Taking Off

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    Two respected energy forecasting agencies revised their Electric Vehicle (EV) expectations up by an order of magnitude and still, according to ARK’s research, they are missing the mark by a long shot. Despite a strong year for traditional SUV and truck sales, both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased their annual EV sales […]

  • ev batteries value, tesla, ark invest, bmw, research, innovation research

    Residual Value: Electric Batteries vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TSLA

    One of the chief concerns about Electric Vehicles (EVs) – battery degradation – seems to be misplaced: ARK’s research suggests that EV batteries will retain substantial value after reaching the end of their in-vehicle lives. Utilities are in constant demand for energy storage products. In fact, if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, […]

  • Residential Solar, solar Economics, Residential Solar panels, ark research, innovation research, ark invest

    Free Residential Solar Panels? Not Worth The Money.

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: SCTY

    On some level, the argument for the adoption of solar has been simple: at some future date, declines in the cost of solar power will generate cheaper electrons than those from traditional power plants. For decades, this forecast of “grid parity”[1] has supported the case for subsidizing a technology that has been around for decades […]

  • disruptive innovation research, oil peak, peak oil research, electric vehicle, ark invest, innovation research

    Will Global Oil Demand Peak Before 2020?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, BP, NSANY, TSLA

    If current trends in the advancement of electric vehicle (EV) drivetrains and autonomous technology continue, oil demand could peak before the end of the decade. ARK’s research indicates that battery system costs will drop significantly, driving EV demand to levels that far exceed policymakers’ expectations. In addition, Uber-like autonomous taxi services will lower the price of […]

  • Electric Vehicles, Tesla, ARK Research, Parity Point

    2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust

    by | Industrial

    UPDATE: This article has been updated as of October 17, 2016. The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional […]

  • Tesla Model 3

    Could the Tesla Model 3 Become the Cheapest Car on the Road?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    ARK believes the advent of autonomous electric vehicles will change the economics of car ownership as we know it. For instance, if the Tesla Model 3 debuts with fully autonomous capability, it will effectively become the most affordable car on the road. The last section of Elon Musk’s Second Master Plan reads, “You will also […]

  • Tesla production efficiency, tesla production, tesla step function, tesla innovation, ark research

    Tesla’s Production Efficiency: The Next Moving Assembly Line

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TM, TSLA

    Henry Ford revolutionized the transportation industry when he introduced the moving assembly line into his factories. It wasn’t the introduction of a new car, but the increase in production efficiency that changed the industry dynamics. It seems unimaginable that vehicle production efficiency has barely improved in the last 100 years. Because of the stasis in […]

  • SQM Lithium Mine

    The Abundance of Lithium

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: ALB, BP, FMC, ORE, SQM

    Despite speculation to the contrary, lithium resource constraints are unlikely to short circuit accelerating electric vehicle (EV) sales. ARK believes global lithium reserves[1] will continue to grow even as lithium production rises to meet EV demand. Lithium mining companies with low-cost resources stand to benefit as new higher cost supply comes on line. During the […]

  • reusable rockets, spacex, space exploration, ark research, invest in innovation,

    Reusable Rockets: At the First Stage

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: OA

    Elon Musk has made headlines saying, “If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred.”[1] While that statement regarding reusable rockets may be true, in our opinion, the technological pathway that SpaceX has […]

  • tesla, tesla battery technology, battery system, battery research, battery technology comparison, battery system review, tesla, ark research, innovation research, invest in innovation

    Lithium-ion Battery Showdown; Is Tesla About To Be Overpowered?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, GM, TSLA

    Will Tesla’s devotion to last decade’s battery system technology undermine its competitive advantage over the latter half of this decade? At first glance: Yes! On further reflection: No! While a simple analysis of the relative price declines of the two major battery form-factors—cylindrical and pouch—would suggest that the likes of General Motors and BMW will produce electric […]