Research by Sam Korus, ARK Analyst

  • Tesla-Price-Target-ARKInvest

    Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    In August 2018, ARK published an open letter with an extract of our TSLA valuation model communicating why we believed taking Tesla private at $420 per share would deprive shareholders of significant returns. Since then ARK has updated its TSLA valuation regularly. Based on new research, we are sharing our latest model to clarify what […]

  • Hypersonic Flight Could Evolve Into a $270 Billion Market

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BA, SPCE

    On July 8, 2019 Virgin Galactic and Social Capital Hedosophia announced a merger, creating the world’s first publicly traded human spaceflight company.1 Virgin Galactic is planning to operate a space tourism business in the short term, but ARK’s research suggests that the bigger opportunity over the long term is in point-to-point hypersonic travel. While private […]

  • Gross-Margin-Blog-Banner

    Wright’s Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla’s

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, TSLA

    We believe that key to Tesla’s viability and value is the gross margin of the Model 3. In the second quarter, Tesla reported auto gross margins of 17.2% excluding regulatory credits.1 Many bears believe that Tesla is in dire straits: Tesla is unprofitable and can’t support higher car prices without killing demand. Analysts have excoriated […]

  • battery-sustainable-future-banner

    The Battery Is Key to a Sustainable Future

    by | Industrial

    While technology stocks typically make up the top holdings of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) focused funds, does technology really enable a sustainable future? Electricity and the internal combustion engine are two of the most transformative technologies in the last few centuries, but they also are two of the greatest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. […]

  • eVTOL-Blog-Banner

    Drones Could Save the 20,000 Lives Lost to Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Each Year

    by | Industrial

    A special thank you to Cyrus Sigari for his insights and contributions to this piece. To stay up to date with all eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing drones) and Urban Aviation news be sure to subscribe to his TransportUP’s newsletter. Each year in the US, roughly 350,000 cardiac arrests occur outside of hospitals (OHCA), […]

  • EV Growth Blog-Banner-S-curve

    Electric Vehicles Are Outperforming the Traditional S-Curve Dynamics

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AAPL, TSLA

    Electric vehicles (EVs)1 generally, and Tesla specifically, seem to be breaking the “s-curve” adoption mold. According to our research, EV growth is stealing the march from the traditional auto industry, and Tesla is leading the charge, so to speak. In a typical s-curve adoption cycle, growth decelerates as a new technology penetrates its addressable market, […]

  • Tesla Valuation

    Tesla Valuation Model: Are Investors Stuck in Reverse?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    This piece was updated on June 28, 2019 from its original version to reflect changes in the open source Github model. The Github documentation details specific changes made, which include minor corrections and updates to our line item assumptions. Our long-term view on Tesla remains unchanged.   Last August, we wrote an open letter to Elon Musk […]

  • Industrial-Robot-Cost-Declines-Banner

    Industrial Robot Cost Declines Should Trigger Tipping Points in Demand

    by | Industrial

    This piece was originally published on 08.07.17 and updated on 01.16.19. According to ARK’s research, industrial robot1 costs will drop by 50-60%, to levels much lower than most analysts now anticipate, by 2025. Combined with advances in machine learning and computer vision, this drop in costs should cause an inflection point in the demand for […]

  • ARK-utility-energy-storage

    The Addressable Market for Utility Energy Storage Could Scale to $800 Billion

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    Elon Musk has stated that Tesla’s energy storage business will be as large as its car business in the long-term.1 ARK’s research shows that foregoing planned gas peaker plants and replacing them with utility scale energy storage could generate roughly $10 billion in revenues per year, more than six times Tesla’s $1.5 billion utility energy […]

  • Blog-Banner-Template-Model-3-vs-Camry

    The Model 3 Is Cheaper to Own Than a Toyota Camry

    by | Industrial

    The long-range Model 3’s sticker price is $44,500, roughly 85% higher than that of a Toyota Camry; yet, ARK’s research shows that the Model 3 could be the better deal over a three-year period. Early this year, Kelley Blue Book (KBB) published its Best Resale Value Awards for 2019. According to KBB,1 over a three-year […]

  • ARK Invest Electric Scooter banner

    Electric Scooters: The Unit Economics May Spell Trouble

    by | Industrial

    Last October, pedestrians, vandals, and perhaps shopkeepers dumped 60 electric scooters into a lake in Oakland, California. While electric scooters and other forms of micromobility have the potential to transform city landscapes and urban transportation, ARK wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of scooter companies go bankrupt first. ARK’s research suggests that dockless electric […]

  • automated food services, food robotics, automation, ark research

    Could Automating Food Services Create Jobs?

    by | Industrial

    While automation often causes fears of unemployment, history shows that robots can and do create jobs. Two relationships help explain how automation can increase employment: productivity gains relative to the price elasticity of demand for goods and services, and the shift from non-paid to commercial activity. Productivity in the food services industry has been relatively […]

  • electric vehicles

    Autonomous Electric Taxi Fleets Could Spark Electricity Demand

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GM, GOOG

    Autonomous electric taxis are commercializing faster than most analysts anticipated. Alphabet’s Waymo announced plans to launch its autonomous electric taxi fleets this year, and GM’s Cruise Automation is set to launch in 2019. Waymo driverless cars already are on the road in Phoenix, Arizona. Many forecasts are ignoring the impact that autonomous electric taxi fleets […]

  • Tesla Resembles Apple ARK Invest

    Tesla Through the Lens of Apple

    by | Digital Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AAPL, F, GM, GOOG, SSNLF, TCEHY, TSLA, VWAGY

    From 2007 to 2018, Apple’s revenue and market capitalization grew roughly tenfold1—making it the most celebrated technology growth story of the 21st century. Apple’s growth was fueled by the most productive period in the company’s history with the release of the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and App Store—each generating sales on par with a Fortune 500 […]

  • autonomous-delivery-robot-banner

    Autonomous Delivery Robots Could Lower the Cost of Last Mile Delivery by 20-Fold

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: APRN, HFG.F

    “The primary thing that any technology startup must do is build a product that’s at least 10 times better at doing something than the current prevailing way of doing that thing.”1 – Ben Horowitz How could a cooler on wheels traveling four miles per hour change logistics as we know it today? ARK’s research suggests […]

  • new-space

    Why New Space is an Exciting Opportunity

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BA, SSNLF, VSAT

    The space industry is set to take off! Listen as ARK Industrial Analyst, Sam Korus, explains:  What used to be a monopolistic and bureaucratic industry is being upended by both rocket and satellite cost declines. Today, there are just over 1,700 active satellites orbiting Earth, but companies already have plans to launch almost 10 […]

  • Cobalt Banner

    Cobalt Won’t Slow Down EV Adoption

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GM, TSLA

    In the past two years cobalt prices have more than tripled from roughly $25,000 per metric ton to more than $79,0001 in response to supply constraints anticipated as electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain traction. In 2017, the Congo accounted for 58% of global cobalt production, explaining the fear that geopolitical instability will cause shortages. […]

  • ev-forecast-banner

    Auto Capital Spending Suggests That EV Forecasts Are Much Too Low

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, TSLA

    ARK’s research shows that for the past three years, electric vehicle (EV) forecasts have increased significantly, with a consensus forming recently around four million units for 2022. According to ARK’s research, global EV sales will be more than four times higher than expected, or roughly 17 million units. When ARK first forecast 17 million units […]

  • delivery-drones banner

    Delivery Drones Could Serve a Large Swath of the US Population

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AMZN

    Delivery drones are ready to launch, once regulators give them the greenlight. So how many people will these drones be able to serve in the US? Our research suggests that, if the FAA approved them today, Amazon’s drones could transport packages to more than 50 million people in roughly 30 minutes. The battery improvements we […]

  • electric-passenger-drones-banner

    Air Taxis Are On The Way

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BA, EADSY, TSLA

    “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters,” said Peter Thiel in 2013.1 Five years later, we have twice as many characters per tweet, but no flying cars. In our view, a vehicle for both the road and the air will never see the light of day. In fewer than five years, however, personal […]

  • EV Semi Trucks Banner

    The Case for an EV Semi Truck

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    While automakers are waking up to the realization that electric drivetrains are the future of passenger vehicles, many manufacturers remain skeptical that heavy-duty hauling vehicles will succumb to electrification. They continue to assert that batteries are too expensive, too slow to charge, and too heavy to be incorporated into long-haul fleets. Not surprisingly, they scoffed […]

  • electric vehicle future, electric vehicle white paper, ev research, electric vehicle research, sam korus, ark white paper, innovation white paper, electric cars white paper

    The Future of Autos and Trucks Is Electric

    by | Industrial White Paper

    This is an executive summary of ARK Invest’s electric vehicles white paper: The Future of Autos and Trucks Is Electric ARK Expects Global EV Sales To Exceed Current Forecasts, Substantially ARK expects global sales of Electric Vehicles (EVs) to reach 17 million units by 2022, while agencies like the EIA are forecasting only two to four […]

  • Autonomous Electric Trucks , Autonomous Trucks, Autonomous EV Trucks

    Why Autonomous Electric Trucks Are The Future Of Shipping

    by | Industrial

    US truck shipments compromise a $180 billion industry and cost roughly 12 cents per ton-mile today. As automakers are waking up to the realization that electric, autonomous drivetrains are the future of passenger vehicles, ARK’s research shows that commercial trucks will follow in line. Converting diesel trucks into electric vehicles will reduce operating costs, thanks to […]

  • Industrial Robot Costs

    Industrial Robot Cost Decline

    by | Industrial

    According to ARK’s research, industrial robot1 costs will drop by roughly 65%, to levels much lower than most analysts now anticipate, by 2025. Combined with advances in machine learning and computer vision, this drop in costs should cause an inflection point in the demand for robots as they infiltrate new industries with more provocative use […]

  • Collaborative Robots

    The Robots Are Coming… To Help You

    by | Industrial

    Based on our analysis, the robotics industry will be much larger than most experts anticipate, but it will not drive the unemployment rate up. Collaborative robots have become a disruptive force in the traditional industrial robots industry, and will turbocharge the demand for robots to levels far beyond current expectations. Historically, and to the surprise […]

  • auto-loans-banner

    A Crisis Brewing for Auto Loans?

    by | Industrial

    An unexpectedly rapid rise of both ride-sharing and autonomous taxis seems likely to threaten all three of the factors that historically have supported a predictable car loan market. Since 2010, auto loans have increased more than 70% or $0.5 trillion as shown below. In our view, disruptive innovation is primed to hit the auto loans […]

  • EV sales, electric vehicle sales, ark research

    Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts Are Taking Off

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    Two respected energy forecasting agencies revised their Electric Vehicle (EV) expectations up by an order of magnitude and still, according to ARK’s research, they are missing the mark by a long shot. Despite a strong year for traditional SUV and truck sales, both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased their annual EV sales […]

  • ev batteries value, tesla, ark invest, bmw, research, innovation research

    Residual Value: Electric Batteries vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TSLA

    One of the chief concerns about Electric Vehicles (EVs) – battery degradation – seems to be misplaced: ARK’s research suggests that EV batteries will retain substantial value after reaching the end of their in-vehicle lives. Utilities are in constant demand for energy storage products. In fact, if electric utilities were to pay $15,000 per battery, […]

  • Residential Solar, solar Economics, Residential Solar panels, ark research, innovation research, ark invest

    Free Residential Solar Panels? Not Worth The Money.

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: SCTY

    On some level, the argument for the adoption of solar has been simple: at some future date, declines in the cost of solar power will generate cheaper electrons than those from traditional power plants. For decades, this forecast of “grid parity”[1] has supported the case for subsidizing a technology that has been around for decades […]

  • disruptive innovation research, oil peak, peak oil research, electric vehicle, ark invest, innovation research

    Will Global Oil Demand Peak Before 2020?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, BP, NSANY, TSLA

    If current trends in the advancement of electric vehicle (EV) drivetrains and autonomous technology continue, oil demand could peak before the end of the decade. ARK’s research indicates that battery system costs will drop significantly, driving EV demand to levels that far exceed policymakers’ expectations. In addition, Uber-like autonomous taxi services will lower the price of […]

  • Electric Vehicles, Tesla, ARK Research, Parity Point

    2022: The Year Electric Vehicles Leave Gas Cars in the Dust

    by | Industrial

    UPDATE: This article has been updated as of October 17, 2016. The automotive industry is approaching a profound inflection point: by 2022 the demand for electric vehicles1 (EVs) will begin to outpace that for gasoline powered cars. As the cost of lithium-ion cells falls faster than most analysts have anticipated and the cost to manufacture traditional […]

  • Tesla Model 3

    Could the Tesla Model 3 Become the Cheapest Car on the Road?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: TSLA

    ARK believes the advent of autonomous electric vehicles will change the economics of car ownership as we know it. For instance, if the Tesla Model 3 debuts with fully autonomous capability, it will effectively become the most affordable car on the road. The last section of Elon Musk’s Second Master Plan reads, “You will also […]

  • Tesla production efficiency, tesla production, tesla step function, tesla innovation, ark research

    Tesla’s Production Efficiency: The Next Moving Assembly Line

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, TM, TSLA

    Henry Ford revolutionized the transportation industry when he introduced the moving assembly line into his factories. It wasn’t the introduction of a new car, but the increase in production efficiency that changed the industry dynamics. It seems unimaginable that vehicle production efficiency has barely improved in the last 100 years. Because of the stasis in […]

  • SQM Lithium Mine

    The Abundance of Lithium

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: ALB, BP, FMC, ORE, SQM

    Despite speculation to the contrary, lithium resource constraints are unlikely to short circuit accelerating electric vehicle (EV) sales. ARK believes global lithium reserves[1] will continue to grow even as lithium production rises to meet EV demand. Lithium mining companies with low-cost resources stand to benefit as new higher cost supply comes on line. During the […]

  • reusable rockets, spacex, space exploration, ark research, invest in innovation,

    Reusable Rockets: At the First Stage

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: OA

    Elon Musk has made headlines saying, “If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred.”[1] While that statement regarding reusable rockets may be true, in our opinion, the technological pathway that SpaceX has […]

  • tesla, tesla battery technology, battery system, battery research, battery technology comparison, battery system review, tesla, ark research, innovation research, invest in innovation

    Lithium-ion Battery Showdown; Is Tesla About To Be Overpowered?

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, GM, TSLA

    Will Tesla’s devotion to last decade’s battery system technology undermine its competitive advantage over the latter half of this decade? At first glance: Yes! On further reflection: No! While a simple analysis of the relative price declines of the two major battery form-factors—cylindrical and pouch—would suggest that the likes of General Motors and BMW will produce electric […]

  • automotive consolidation, consolidation automotive industry, evs, ark research, electric vehicles, innovation research, industrial innovation

    The Automotive Industry Is On The Threshold of Massive Consolidation

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: F, FCAU, TSLA

    In 1913 Henry Ford installed the first moving assembly line for the Model T. Moving at six feet per minute, it reduced the time to build a car from more than 12 hours to one and a half. While impressive, the increased rate of production was not the most important impact. We think the moving […]

  • space market, rocket, rocket launch, space, new space, outer space, NASA, SpaceX, ARKindu, ARK, Industrial Innovation, ARK investment management, investing, ETFs, arkq

    Rockets on the Rise: New Space Market Brings Explosive Opportunities

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BA, LMT, OA, ORB

    Update: ARK published this article about new space market back in October 2014 after the Antares rocket explosion. In the last three months of 2015 several exciting events in the space industry have increased ARK’s conviction in the commercialization of space. First, Congress passed the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, which protects private spaceflight from regulatory […]

  • telsa, TSLA, battery, energy storage, lithium-ion battery, charging station, electric vehicle, EVs, alternative energy, arkq, arkindu, industrial innovation, ARK, ARK Investment Management, Innovation, ETF, Active management, thematic, investing, disruptive innovation, investment management

    Update: Tesla Could Sell a Million Vehicles Per Year by 2020

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: BMW, DDAIF, TSLA

    Elon Musk’s depiction of Tesla’s competitive positioning in the marketplace, highlighted in the company’s Q4 2015 earnings release, is very similar to an analysis that ARK Invest did 12 months ago to project likely demand for Tesla vehicles in 2020. In this piece we updated that analysis and its accompanying blog post to reflect 2015 […]

  • retail robots, ark research, robotics, invest in innovation, amazon, amazon robots, retail innovation, retail logistics

    Retail is Ready for Robots

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AMZN, BBY, LOW, PNRA, RL, TGT, WMT

    The Retail Robot is ready to transform shopping. Robotics have shown their worth in the manufacturing industry, increasing product quality while reducing factory footprint, production time, and costs. Now they are ready to bring the advantages of automation to retail. For the past four years gross margins have been falling for major retailers, but Amazon is […]

  • Labor Market, Automation, Workforce, ARK Research, Labor market friction

    The Steep Cost of Labor Market Friction: $630 Billion

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: AHEXY, CSOD, LNKD, MAN, RANJY, RHI, WDAY

    Friction in the labor market costs the U.S economy more than $630B per annum as shown in the chart below. Given ARK’s expectations for an acceleration in job turnover thanks to automation, this number should be expected to grow. Bad news? Not for everyone: these frictions present tremendous opportunity for companies that help firms reduce […]

  • battery technology, tesla, free fall

    Tesla’s Battery Technology Powers its Moat – “Faster Than Falling.”

    by | Industrial
    Mentioned Companies: GM, TSLA

    Tesla’s improvements in its battery technology demonstrate the durability of its competitive lead even amidst new electric vehicle announcements from major manufacturers. The goal of ARK’s thematic research and investing is to assess the true signifiers of future value—often overlooked, ignored or misinterpreted—as companies seed disruptive innovation into the marketplace. On this basis, ARK believes […]