Today, Tasha Keeney sits down with Simon Barnett to talk about ARK’s valuation of Exact Sciences and to share our outlook about the company’s trajectory in the next five years. Exact Sciences is the cancer testing company that has brought to market both Cologuard and Oncotype. This conversation covers the prominence and acceptance of these two testing franchises, Exact Sciences’ product leadership, Exact’s recent performance in the market, the models that ARK has developed for gauging the company’s outlook, and the areas of risk that investors should be aware of. One of the main focuses of today’s chat is what Exact Sciences’ progress symbolizes in terms of the future of the cancer treatment field, with Simon making an argument for why he sees them holding onto their market-leading position for the foreseeable future. We also spend some time at the end of the episode considering what this means for healthcare and individual wellbeing in general, so make sure to catch it all in this episode of For Your Innovation! Please refer to the Exact Sciences valuation article for a more comprehensive explanation of ARK’s model, including its risks and limitations.
Key Points From This Episode:
- Introducing Exact Sciences and its two biggest testing franchises: Cologuard and Oncotype.
- Valuation of Exact Sciences and how ARK has approached creating these models.
- Calculations for the price target of the company.
- Sales and marketing at Exact Sciences and the positive brand recognition they have built.
- Benchmarks for analyzing companies like Exact Sciences.
- Comparing ARK’s process and view on Exact Sciences to other opinions in the market.
- How the lowered price of genome sequencing has affected the outlook for the market.
- The route to the aggregate gross margin structure for Exact Sciences.
- Qualitative elements that matter most to ARK; how Exact Science fits into our rubric.
- Alignment between the expectations of Exact Science’s management and our estimations.
- A look at the three main areas of risk: competition, time, and financing.
- Simon explains how thesis risk applies to the healthcare space.
- Thoughts on the company’s net income and cash flow in the near future.
- Reasons to be excited about the next few years in the healthcare space.